Is The Church In China Growing Or Shrinking?

What is the current state of Christianity in China? Has its growth truly come to an end? According to the Pew Research Centre, the answer is yes, the growth has ceased. “In 19 nationally representative surveys conducted since the early 2000s, the authors find no clear evidence that Christianity continues to grow as a share of China's population.”

In response, the Christian Times, an online Chinese Christian newspaper, gathered insights from 12 pastors of house churches in China. These pastors were located across eight provincial-level regions and span four generations, from those born in the 1960s to the 1990s. Of these 12 pastors, four openly opposed the Pew conclusions, “using words such as ‘doubtful,’ ‘the data might be fake,’ and ‘nonsense.’” Five pastors refrained from commenting. Three pastors remained indifferent to the findings of the survey.

Asked for their own analysis of the situation, four pastors believed the number of Christians in China is still growing. One pastor “believed that the Christian population in China is slowly declining.” The other seven gave basically unclear answers.

The pastor who believes that the church is slowly declining gave as a reason the fact that in recent years churches have not been as active in evangelism as they used to be. Thus fewer young people are coming to faith. Also that in recent years - especially during the pandemic - many older Christians have passed away. “The difference between past periods of church revival and the present is truly significant. In the 1980s and 1990s, during the revival era, it was common in many rural areas for dozens of people in a single village to hear the gospel and become Christians. Such scenes were widespread back then and considered normal. However, similar occurrences have largely disappeared today, both in cities and rural areas.” But this pastor knew of “a few churches in certain cities that are still growing - and growing quite rapidly.”

A pastor from East China offered a more in-depth perspective. He believes that the number of Christians in China is slowly increasing, even if the growth is not immediately visible. He compared the current situation to the Cultural Revolution, when it seemed there were very few believers. Yet after the era ended, the Christian population quickly surged. Today, he observes a rising group of people in their 30s becoming active in local churches, and seminary training programmes continue to enrol students. He sees this as God preparing a new generation of leaders. In his view, the Chinese church is currently experiencing gradual growth, and the priority should be equipping leaders - especially those with a broad vision, international perspective, and strategic thinking.

Based on that response, the Christian Times proposed a revised perspective: Christianity in China is entering - or has already entered - a phase of ‘latent development.’ “We should pay greater attention to the quiet transformation in the development model of the Chinese church - shifting from a past emphasis on rapid and simplistic numerical growth to a future-oriented pursuit of quality development. In recent years, many churches have recognised this shift and have taken action, such as focusing on discipleship training, building healthy churches, and promoting missional church models.” In this view “the conclusion drawn by the Pew Research Center - that ‘the growth of Christianity in China may have ended’ - lacks sufficient evidence and shows low consistency with on-the-ground observations.”

Pray for the church in China to continue to grow, both in quality and in quantity.

Pray for the church in China to be ready for each and every situation that it must face in these difficult days.

Pray particularly for pastors like the 12 mentioned by Christian Times to be given wisdom and anointing to lead and to grow their flocks.